A team of researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively have predicted that India may see another rise in Covid-19 cases as soon as August with the third wave.
Experts also indicate that the third wave might peak with less than 100,000 infections a day in the best-case scenario or nearly 150,000 in the worst scenario.
Researchers predict that the surge in Covid-19 cases will push the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which may peak in October.
Researchers also predict that states with high Covid-19 cases, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could “skew the picture.”
The predictions and forecasts related to covid 19 are based on a mathematical model and have been able to successfully forecast the lessening of the surge in Covid-19 cases earlier this year.
Researchers also address the fact that the third wave of Covid-19 is unlikely to be as brutal as the second wave when India reported 400,000-plus daily cases and came down after that.
India’s top microbiologist and virologist, Professor Gagandeep Kang also made a statement in response to a question about the third wave. She said that if the situation does not change much, the third wave of Covid-19 infections will be a hill if the second wave was a steep mountain.
She added that one cannot predict the third wave of Covid-19 infections precisely as no one knows whether the virus will mutate further and become more dangerous.
Another matter of concern for the nation is the Delta and Delta plus variant of Covid 19 which spreads as easily as chickenpox and can be passed on even by the vaccinated people. The Indian Sars-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium (INSACOG) data states that nearly 8 of every 10 Covid-19 cases in May, June, and July (the time of the second wave) were caused by the highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus.